Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen believes there’s a 50% likelihood that spot Ethereum ETFs will achieve approval within the coming months.
Rasmussen shared his insights on the chances throughout a Feb. 26 interview with Yahoo Finance. He mentioned:
“I actually don’t know if the market is essentially at a degree that the SEC want to see in an effort to approve these spot [Ethereum] ETFs this Could. I feel it’s a couple of 50/50 p.c likelihood that we’ll see approval or we’ll see rejection and kick it out to a different … spherical of functions sooner or later.”
Different sources, together with Bitwise World Head of Analysis Matt Hougan, beforehand predicted near 50% odds that spot ETH ETFs will achieve approval in Could. In the meantime, the chances for approval are barely decrease on the Polymarket web site at 41%.
The SEC has to resolve on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF software by the Could 23 deadline and is predicted to resolve on the opposite functions concurrently because it did with the spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Rasmussen additionally mentioned that the US SEC didn’t approve Bitcoin ETFs till Grayscale initiated a lawsuit regarding dismissing its software. He added that it’s unsure whether or not an analogous lawsuit may be essential for ETH ETFs.
Moreover, it’s unclear whether or not any applicant may file a lawsuit at this stage of the method.
Bitwise believes ETFs will drive costs upward
Bitwise doesn’t at the moment have a pending spot Ethereum ETF software however was one among a number of candidates that gained approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in January.
Rasmussen famous that Bitwise is “tremendously pleased” with the success of Bitcoin ETFs. He mentioned that the agency has seen $1 billion in belongings movement into its personal Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and that the ETFs have collectively seen greater than $15 billion in asset movement.
Rasmussen additionally predicted that spot Bitcoin ETFs and different funds will drive up crypto costs as beforehand “sidelined” institutional buyers purchase in. He mentioned:
“When we’ve that form of demand shock coming into the market, I feel it’s no shock that we’ve seen the worth of Bitcoin rise … I feel it will likely be the identical for Ethereum or different belongings if there have been different ETFs to return to markets.”
Rasmussen additionally described different occasions impacting the crypto market, together with Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, Ethereum’s upcoming Dencun improve, NFT buying and selling volumes, and Solana’s value development.
He urged that crypto is “rising from the ashes” of the weak 2022 market and is coming into a multi-year bull cycle. Rasmussen concluded by restating Bitwise’s earlier value predictions and mentioned that the flagship crypto continues to be on monitor to succeed in a brand new all-time excessive of at the very least $88,000 by the top of 2024.
