A JPMorgan govt prompt on Jan. 12 that securities regulators are equally prone to approve or disapprove a spot Ethereum ETF within the coming months.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a Managing Director for JPMorgan, advised The Block:
“In our opinion, for the [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] to approve spot Ethereum ETFs in Might, it could must classify Ethereum as a commodity (just like bitcoin) quite than a safety … That is removed from given, and I wouldn’t put greater than a 50% probability to the SEC classifying Ethereum as a commodity earlier than Might.”
He added that the SEC is “nonetheless signaling that it continues to view all different cryptocurrencies exterior bitcoin as securities.”
Panigirtzoglou’s feedback allude to a press release from SEC chair Gary Gensler concerning spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) approvals on Jan. 11.
There, Gensler mentioned that the newest approvals concern solely ETPs holding Bitcoin (BTC) and recognized Bitcoin as a non-security commodity. Gensler added that the approvals shouldn’t sign the SEC’s views on the securities standing of different crypto property; he additionally asserted that the “overwhelming majority of crypto property are funding contracts” and subsequently beneath federal securities legal guidelines.
Different sources predict as much as 70% approval odds
Regardless of Panigirtzoglou’s low approval estimate, some sources place increased odds on an upcoming spot Ethereum ETF approval. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has predicted a 70% probability of such an approval by Might.
One prediction market on Polymarket suggests that there’s a 57% probability of an Ethereum ETF approval by Might 31. These odds are based mostly on over $15,000 price of cryptocurrency bets quite than any particular person’s private stance.
Predictions largely deal with Might as a result of the SEC should resolve on a spot Ethereum ETF utility from VanEck by Might 23. Different candidates together with BlackRock, Constancy, VanEck, ARK Make investments, and Invesco Galaxy have additionally filed for spot Ethereum ETFs, however with later resolution deadlines.
The SEC authorized a variety of ETFs that included Ethereum futures in October 2023 however has not but authorized a spot Ethereum ETF.
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